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Goods Trade Barometer 18 August 2021 Goods Barometer hits record high, confirming strength of trade recovery Goods trade barometer Index value, June 2021 = 110.4 Index history, trend = 100 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Goods trade barometer World merchandise trade volume 2011M01 2011M07 2012M01 2012M07 2013M01 2013M07 2014M01 2014M07 2015M01 2015M07 2016M01 2016M07 2017M01 2017M07 2018M01 2018M07 2019M01 2019M07 2020M01 2020M07 2021M01 2021M07 The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. The latest reading of 110.4 is up more than 20 points year-on-year, reflecting the strength of the ongoing recovery and the depth of the pandemic-induced shock last year. Data suggest that the trade recovery may be slowing as the barometer index has started to rise at a decreasing rate. These results are consistent with the WTO's most recent forecast of 8% growth in world merchandise trade volume in 2021. World merchandise trade volume 10.0 5.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 -5.0 -3.8 -10.0 180 5.7 170 0.7 160 150 -5.9 140 -15.0 130 -14.8 -20.0 120 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 Year-on-year % change, left Seasonally Adjusted Index 2005=100, right Global goods trade continues to recover after registering a sharp decline in the second quarter of 2020 during the early stages of the pandemic. The volume of merchandise trade was up 5.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, the largest increase since a 5.8% rise in third quarter of 2011. The recovery has been marked by regional disparities, with North America, Europe and Asia regaining lost ground and other regions lagging behind. The latest barometer reading suggests that goods trade will see an even bigger year-on-year increase in the second quarter, with growth moderating thereafter. The pace of recovery could be restrained by supply chain disruptions, e.g. the semiconductor shortage that has recently hampered vehicle production. Drivers of goods trade Component index values, trend = 100 Jun 2021 May 2021 Export orders 109.3 Automotive products Container shipping Air freight (IATA) 106.6 110.8 114.0 Electronic components Raw materials 112.4 104.7 All of the barometer's component indices were above trend in the latest month, illustrating the broad-based nature of the trade recovery. Indices for air freight (114.0), container shipping (110.8) and raw materials (104.7) were rising, indicating faster than average growth. The automotive products index (106.6) also rose despite the fact that car production and sales fell in July in some countries due to a shortage of semiconductors (the rise can be explained by smoothing of the underlying data). This shortage is also reflected in a small drop in the index for electronic components (112.4). The forward-looking export orders index (109.3) has also turned down, suggesting that upward momentum in trade may have peaked. 70 Source: TDM. 100 Agricultural raw materials (Index, trend = 100) 130 104.7 112.4 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, ACEA, JAMA, National Bureau of Statistics China. 70 100 Component indices Export orders (Index, trend = 100) 130 100 70 Source: IHS Markit. Container port throughput (Index, trend = 100) 130 100 70 Source: ISL. Electronic components (Index, trend = 100) 130 100 70 Source: TDM. 2011M01 2011M07 2012M01 2012M07 2013M01 2013M07 2014M01 2014M07 2015M01 2015M07 2016M01 2016M07 2017M01 2017M07 2018M01 2018M07 2019M01 2019M07 2020M01 2020M07 2021M01 2021M07 2011M01 2011M07 2012M01 2012M07 2013M01 2013M07 2014M01 2014M07 2015M01 2015M07 2016M01 2016M07 2017M01 2017M07 2018M01 2018M07 2019M01 2019M07 2020M01 2020M07 2021M01 2021M07 2011M01 2011M07 2012M01 2012M07 2013M01 2013M07 2014M01 2014M07 2015M01 2015M07 2016M01 2016M07 2017M01 2017M07 2018M01 2018M07 2019M01 2019M07 2020M01 2020M07 2021M01 2021M07 2011M01 2011M07 2012M01 2012M07 2013M01 2013M07 2014M01 2014M07 2015M01 2015M07 2016M01 2016M07 2017M01 2017M07 2018M01 2018M07 2019M01 2019M07 2020M01 2020M07 2021M01 2021M07 Automobile production and sales (Index, trend = 100) 130 106.6 110.8 Source: IATA. 2011M01 2011M07 2012M01 2012M07 2013M01 2013M07 2014M01 2014M07 2015M01 2015M07 2016M01 2016M07 2017M01 2017M07 2018M01 2018M07 2019M01 2019M07 2020M01 2020M07 2021M01 2021M07 2011M01 2011M07 2012M01 2012M07 2013M01 2013M07 2014M01 2014M07 2015M01 2015M07 2016M01 2016M07 2017M01 2017M07 2018M01 2018M07 2019M01 2019M07 2020M01 2020M07 2021M01 2021M07 70 100 International air freight (IATA) (Index, trend = 100) 130 114.0 109.3 Notes Data on international air freight courtesy of the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Air freight has proved to be a very timely indicator of overall world trade and an early signal of turning points in recessions. Further information and analysis available here: https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/ Other sources: WTO Secretariat for quarterly merchandise trade volume, TDM Trade Data Monitor database for electronic components and agricultural raw materials, Institute for Shipping Economics and Logistics for container throughput. Export orders from IHS-Markit Global PMI. Details on the methodology of the trade outlook indicator are available on the WTO website at the following address: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/methodology_wtoi_19aug20_e.pdf Short-term WTO trade statistics (quarterly and monthly) can be obtained here: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm The WTO issues a separate semi-annual trade forecasts projecting trade growth over two years. The latest release is available for download here: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres21_e/pr876_e.htm
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